By Lucia Mutikani and Ann Saphir

Reuters
ctober 3, 2025

Alternate data from public and private sources, a substitute for official statistics delayed by a government shutdown, showed the U.S. job market likely remained stalled in September with sluggish hiring but no change in an unemployment rate economists see as influenced by falling numbers of foreign-born workers.
The federal government’s 15th shutdown since 1981, with some 750,000 workers furloughed, has delayed publication of key reports including the September unemployment and jobs data due on Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key reference point for Federal Reserve policymakers who meet in a little under four weeks to decide whether to cut interest rates again.
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Also delayed so far are the weekly jobless claims report and factory orders and construction spending data for August.
While the data could still be available for the Fed’s October 28-29 meeting depending on the length of the shutdown, alternative data, such as a new “real-time” estimate of the unemployment rate issued on Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is likely to attract more attention from Fed officials, economists and analysts trying to understand the economy while the government is idle.
The Chicago Fed report, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun.
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But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market that is likely to keep the Fed poised to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point.
The Fed’s rate cut discussion now leans heavily on policymakers’ views of whether the labor market is holding up, with the 4.3% jobless rate considered around full employment, or is at risk of a sharp rupture. The Fed last month cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25% after job gains slowed sharply and the unemployment rate ticked up in August.
“We’re going to go off of the data we have,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Fox News’ America Reports on Thursday, adding that to him the bank’s new unemployment number “indicates some steadiness in the labor market.”
And critics say lawmakers are treating on information the public doesn’t have.

The Chicago Fed’s new data series, opens new tab, updated twice monthly, showed the hiring rate for unemployed workers dipping slightly and the rate of layoffs and other job separations up a bit.
That put “limited upward pressure” on the unemployment rate, the bank said.
LABOR MARKET IS STAGNATING
Earlier this week, data from payroll processor ADP indicated private payrolls fell 32,000 in September. The ADP data may also take on added weight in the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics updates, and was cited by Fed Governor Christopher Waller in August as helping ground internal Fed staff estimates that showed “continued deterioration” in the job market beginning in May.
Line graph showing monthly and three month average job gains.
Line graph showing monthly and three month average job gains.
New data issued Thursday by technology firm Intuit, based on a sample of roughly 400,000 of small businesses from its QuickBooks platform, showed firms with from one to nine employees shed more than 48,000 jobs in September, a decline of around 0.37%. Firms of that size have seen a steady drop in employment since early 2024, with average monthly employment for the latest quarter down about 400,000 from a peak of 13.1 million.

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